Establishing horse racing predictions (whether your own or those consulted online) is essential for getting your bets right. You can either buy fish or learn to fish by setting your own predictions, in this post we will look at the latter. With a few tips for your horse betting, you will be able to make the best guesses possible on what will happen. Sounds good, doesn’t it?
Horse predictions: What to keep in mind?
Mentally visualising what you think will happen in a race is essential. But unfortunately, it is not enough to just look at the latest results, or even less, to bet on the horse you like the most and that’s it. There are different aspects to take into account in order to make accurate horse forecasts, and the trick is to know which one to prioritise among them (apart from luck and randomness itself). What are these aspects?
Moment of form: This value is common to all betting markets, whether we are talking about horses or team sports. You can find the latest data and statistics for each participant on racecourse or other websites. Obviously, there is no direct confrontation here, but you can see how one horse has performed when matched against another.
- Context: It’s not just about looking at the latest results of a particular horse. You will have to filter by distance of the race and also results at that same racecourse. That way, your horse prediction will be much more accurate.
- The Jockey: In addition to the previous elements, you must also filter who the Jockey will be. Horses can differ according to their jockey and it can greatly affect their performance, and not taking this into account can be a huge mistake.
- Track condition: Just as track distance affects track distance, weather conditions, for example, can affect track condition. Take this into account to ensure that your horse racing forecast is as accurate as possible.
Horse racing: Forecasts as accurate as possible
Obviously, a horse racing prediction can never be 100% certain. It may be more or less feasible, but there is no such thing as absolute certainty, just as there is no such thing as absolute certainty in team or individual sports, or in motor racing. If you also want ambitious odds, you will never bet with 100% certainty.
What you should be able to do when setting these horse predictions is to approximate a percentage chance of it happening. In other words, be 30% or 50% sure that a horse will win based on the statistics you have on the table, based on what we have seen in the previous point.
One of the most common mistakes here is to use too few indicators. Focusing only on one rider and his last results, for example, instead of cross-referencing them with all the variables you have available and with the different participants. Let’s be honest, horse racing predictions don’t take two or five minutes, so make sure you spend as much time as you need!
From prediction to bet
As you may already know, there are many ways to bet on horses, not just on the winner of the race. You can choose outcome methods such as winner, winner and placed, twin bets or threesomes. There are none that are better or worse. They will simply make an outcome more unlikely (with better odds) or more likely (with worse odds). Pick the one you think and combine them together based on your prediction.
What do I have to be sure of in order to place a bet? Horse racing odds are set on the basis of probability, with the formula (100/odds=probability). If the fact that a horse wins is paid at $5.00 per $, then theoretically the bookmaker sets 20%, and if it is paid at @2.00 then $50.00.
So, do I have to make sure there is a high probability that my horse racing prediction will come true? Not necessarily! If you calculate a 20% chance that your horse will win, but it pays out at @11.0, maybe it’s a good idea to put a small amount here. With the betting stake formula, you will be able to calculate what amount, but with one premise: bet more on the safer bets. On the other hand, if you give 50% to a prediction but it pays @1.50, don’t do it, because it is not profitable at all.
With this information, you can now make your predictions for horse racing and even have a small base to transfer them to the bet, always consulting the articles that we have linked. As always, consulting predictions from tipsters or other websites is not a bad thing, but if you want success here you will have to understand the predictions, know where they come from, and ultimately, make them.